U.S. Renewable Energy Sector
Outlook for 2009
By:
John Gimigliano
In
1859, Charles Dickens famously penned the opening lines to “A Tale of Two
Cities”:
It was
the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was
the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of
incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was
the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair…
Dickens
was not, of course, referring to the outlook for the renewables
sector in 2009, but he easily could have been. The outlook
for the renewables sector is a remarkable juxtaposition of a rosy future and a
grim present. On the one hand, the growing public and political consensus around
the dangers of climate change coupled with the rousing endorsement from Congress
in the broad renewables tax package enacted in October 2008 all bode well for
the sector. On the other, the dramatic downturn in the financial sector suggests
that obtaining project-level financing is going to be tough sledding throughout
2009.
This
“best of times, worst of times” dynamic suggests the coming year may well be the
year that the renewables sector proves its mettle to the market, showing
remarkable resilience in the face of extreme financial uncertainty. To do so, it
will need a little help from Capitol Hill— and Congress may well
deliver.
Prospects for Climate Change
Legislation in 2009
During
the 2008 presidential campaign, President-Elect Obama endorsed a cap-and-trade
program as the preferred approach to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.
Likewise, both the House and the Senate are poised to resume consideration of
various cap-and-trade proposals early in 2009. While many economists, including
the Congressional Budget Office, prefer the simplicity of a carbon tax, most
observers believe that a cap-and-trade system is the most likely political
outcome.
If a
cap-and-trade regime is inevitable, the next question to ask is when it might be
enacted. The answer to this question depends largely on the health of the
economy. Many believe that the Obama Administration will be reluctant to burden
an already soft economy with the higher energy prices that a cap-and-trade
program would almost certainly bring. If the economy remains mired in recession
throughout 2009 and 2010, comprehensive climate change legislation could be
shelved until a possible Obama second term.
Renewable Energy & Energy
Efficiency
If
comprehensive climate change legislation is tabled for the short term, it seems
likely that Congress and the Obama Administration will redouble efforts on more
narrow policy goals or regulatory reforms that have long been at the forefront
of environmental policy in the United States. Indeed, the
appointment of Ken Salazar as Secretary of the Interior; Carol Browner as head
of the newly formed National Energy Council; and appointments at the
Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy (DOE), and other
agencies all point to a determined effort to chart an aggressive course on
environmental policy.
In
particular, the likelihood for a federal renewable energy standard (RES) is
enhanced by the convergence of large Democratic majorities in both chambers of
Congress and a Democrat in the White House. President-Elect Obama was supportive
of a federal Renewable Portfolio Standard throughout the presidential campaign,
and the House of Representatives passed a similar RES on several occasions. The
Senate, long a stumbling block to this legislation, will have a decidedly
greener point of view in the incoming Congress.
The
most recent House version of an RES, in H.R. 6899 from the 110th Congress,
likely represents the jumping- off point for legislative efforts in the 111th
Congress. Interestingly, that version allows for energy efficiency measures to
be treated as qualifying under the RES standard. This would bode well for energy
efficiency technologies, particularly in the Southeast where other renewable
resources appear to be less abundant.
Likely,
other areas to be considered will be modified Corporate Average Fuel Economy
standards for the automobile industry and new and more flexible tax credits for
clean and alternative energy. Likewise, the incoming Obama Administration had
pledged to invest billions of dollars in infrastructure including areas such as
smart grid, biofuels pipelines, and mass transit. This infrastructure spending
could be authorized quickly in 2009 in the promised economic stimulus bill
currently under consideration by House and Senate leadership. The stimulus bill
could also include large grants, tax incentives, and other authorizations for
renewable energy and energy efficiency projects and
technology.
The Future of Renewable Energy Tax
Incentives
To
date, the principal approach to encouraging renewables development in the
United
States has been through the tax code. The
production tax credit (PTC) has helped fuel remarkable increases in U.S.
wind generation in recent years. Likewise, the energy investment tax credit
(ITC) is largely responsible for the current boom in the solar sector. The same
can be said of renewable
energy tax credits for biofuels, biomass, geothermal, fuel cells, hybrid
automobiles, and so on.
This
approach has worked well… until now. The rapid decline of the financial sector
throughout 2008 has all but eliminated the erstwhile renewables financiers from
the marketplace. Even those financial institutions that still have cash on hand
often have current financial and tax losses, making tax credits all but useless.
Without these traditional sources of project-level financing, many planned wind,
solar, and other renewables projects may never get beyond the planning
phase.
It is
against this backdrop that Congress is considering a revision of renewables tax
incentives to make them more effective in the current financial climate.
Congress will likely revisit energy tax legislation in 2009 to, at a minimum,
extend the production tax credit for wind that expires on December 31 of that
year. While considering that extension, Congress has indicated that it will
consider making the PTC and possibly the ITC refundable. Unlike the current-law
tax credits, the holder of a refundable tax credit need not have a tax liability
to capture the value of the tax credit. Rather, the holder of the tax credit can
apply for a refund from the federal government in an amount equal to the
credit.
This
approach would allow developers and project investors who do not have sufficient
tax liability to capture the value of the tax credits to nevertheless do so in
the form of refunds from the federal government. This change could significantly
expand the universe of potential project investors from the handful (that have
both the capital on hand and the tax liability to utilize the project tax
credits) that exist today. Such an approach, if enacted, would push the
United States a step closer
to the feed-in tariff approach so common in Europe. One lingering complexity to be resolved is whether
the accelerated tax depreciation (five years for wind and solar projects) would
be refundable as well. On the one hand, this accelerated cost recovery
represents a sizeable portion of the tax benefits that attract investors. On the
other hand, Congress may be reluctant to set a precedent for other industries
that depreciation and cost recovery can be a refundable
item.
An
alternative proposal put forward by the incoming Obama Administration would
allow claimants of renewable energy tax credits to carry them back to the
preceding five tax years. This would allow these project developers and
investors to wipe out taxes paid in earlier years and claim a tax refund from
the federal government. While this approach is likely to be helpful to many
potential investors, it is unlikely to have the broader stimulus effect of a
generally refundable credit.
Meanwhile, it seems likely that other industries will
enter into the renewables tax financing market. In particular, public utilities
appear to be a good choice to take up some of the slack. As regulated companies,
utilities tend to have both cash and tax liability. In addition, the renewable
energy sector is a natural fit for the core competency of these entities.
Utilities know project development, power purchase agreements, transmission
interconnects, and other fundamentals around power production (even if the
underlying technology is new to most traditional
utilities).
Conclusions
Despite
momentum in public opinion, political circles, and discussions among strategic
investors, the renewables sector faces a challenging year like most sectors of
the economy. While comprehensive climate change legislation may have to wait for
firmer economic footing, other help may be on the way. A federal RES would
create demand for renewables on a national basis. This coupled with revamped
refundable tax credits could shake loose project-level investment that has been
lacking in recent months. These legislative changes could change the outlook
from “A Tale of Two Cities” to another great Dickens book: “Great
Expectations.”
This article was first published by
the KPMG Global Energy Institute in 2009 prior to the enactment of the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009. It is reprinted here with permission of
the publisher.
About the
Author
John
Gimigliano, principal in KPMG’s Washington National Tax group. Prior to joining
KPMG, Gimigliano was Senior Tax Counsel for the Committee on Ways and Means. As
the lead tax counsel for the House of Representatives during the Energy Policy
Act of 2005, he was a principal author of many of the alternative energy tax
incentives currently in the Internal Revenue Code. Gimigliano also represented
the House during the Economic Stimulus Act of 2008.
About the KPMG Global Energy
Institute
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